As we draw closer to the Rally Finland, which starts today, it’s a good time to look back on what has happened and forward to what is coming, since the Finnish rally marks the beginning of the second half of the 14 race season.

Before the 2016 season started, the smart money would have been on Jari-Matti Latvala as a safe second-placer, maybe even a championship leader. From the very first rally in Monaco, however, things have gone poorly for the Finn.

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Jari-Matti Latvala is the lowest ranked Volkswagen Motorsport driver this year, even though he’s done well enough to be fourth overall.

“It obviously doesn’t look very rosy, but there is no reason to bury my head in the sand and give up,” Latvala says in an interview released by Volkswagen Motorsport.

The good news, though, is that this is exactly where Latvala was at this point in the season last year. With one win, a second and a fifth, the Finn had nearly exactly the same record last year, and was in fourth place overall then, too. By the end of that season, Latvala was in second place.

“My pace is there,” says Latvala, and the Finn’s home rally, the last three of which he won, is coming up next. Further, Latvala seems to do better in the second half of the season as a whole.

“We still have a few rallies ahead of us, at which I tend to do well,” says Latvala. Despite that, he is honest about his chances in for the season. “If we no longer have a realistic chance of winning the title, second place would be good.”