Re: Jan. 2006 VWoA Sales up 28% over Jan. 2005 (fortysomething)
This is a good example of something someone a lot smarter than me once said: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
I think it is funny that a year or so ago, vortex stopped posting monthly sales reports after doing it forever. My conspiracy theory says that someone at VW pushed to have less emphasis on the reports. For the longest time, vortex posted the sales #s faithfully, then, when there were consistent declines, they vanished. Now, miraculously, they are back.
Comparing to Jan 05 is a real misnomer to those who know and were selling VWs at that time like myself. Keep in mind that as the new Jetta release came closer, VW strategically started to thin down the availablity to dealers of old Jettas. For instance, one of the best selling models of the old Jetta was the GLS 1.8T. Well, VW phased that car out about 8-12 months before the new Jetta was to hit, and all dealers had on the lot were precious few TDIs, NO 1.8T GLS, and a bunch of 2.0 GLS automatics ( sticks were also curtailed ). I remember going to meetings where the VW rep outlined the ramp-down plan, and it was of big concern that many bread and butter cars were out of production. Things got real tight for months preceding the new Jetta launch on many popular configurations of old Jetta and we were left with the stuff that was hard to sell. So, of course sales in 06 month to month versus 05 are up significantly at this juncture. VW set it up this way to avoid over supply of the old car this time a year ago. A total case of statistics not really reflecting the whole story.
The Passat is in the same boat. About 18 months ago, VW produced a bunch of old Passats in a few configurations and banked them. The factory closed to retool. Whatever Passats were in the pipeline were it. Many colors were eliminated, TDIs dried up, et cetera. This was not to the extent of the Jetta, but similar idea. The pipeline feeding the dealers was severely restricted.
In other words, a lot of what you are seeing is by design and is due statistically to strategic decisions a year to 18 months ago as it is to some huge sales boost now. Of course, VW would like to spin it this way. The reality is not quite so simple. 15-18 months ago, dealers were starving for quality inventory, and the dregs were all there was access to. The good colors were gone, the good trim levels were gone, and dealers were doing dealer trades like crazy fighting over the scraps. We could have sold LOTS more old Jettas for a long time, for instance, if they would have sent 1.8Ts for longer. We were without them for the longest time, probably almost a year.
So yes, for that 6 month span right before the new Jetta launch, and for a few months after until trim levels, transmission options, etc were available, the sales figures will be artificially impacted.
For instance, this happened on Beetles too. Try finding a 1.8T anywhere a year ago. Dealers couldn't get Beetles easily at all with any engine for a while, as the factory seriously curtailed supply in the months prior to the new car.
Good to see VW selling some cars, but I think a more accurate comparison or measure of health would be comparing the new Jetta and Passat sales to an EQUIVALENT time in the past. Go to 2000, when the new Jetta and Passat were fresh and a year or so into their run in the new ( at the time ) body styles and widely available. Right now, the Jetta is new, the Passat is new, the trim levels are available, etc. Of course cars should be selling. Right after all new product comes out should be the best time you ever see with a product line. As the line ages, sales gradually slow down as the public tires of the car and competitors catch up. It is a series of feast and famine cycles. So, comparing the hottest time of new product with the weakest point of the old, especially with a lot of mitigating factors, is not a particularly valid comparison.
At any rate, I hope VW is successful, and continues to get stronger. Just wanted to point out that I had to laugh when I read the sales report.
Now, if we really want to have a valid discussion on this subject, someone with more time than myself needs to dig through the archives. Let's take month-to-month sales in 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06 and graph that out and look at the trend over time. For instance, 1 year into the MK4 Jetta run versus 1 year into the MK5 Jetta run. Compare the same points at time after release. This would be a lot more valid and telling statistic I believe. For all I know, the new Jetta is still out selling what the old one did at the same point in its lifespan, and if so, great, but until we have that data, not time to party yet.
