VW Vortex - Volkswagen Forum banner
  • Rejoining the VWVortex Community - Please review the following thread: Here

Should I Buy Tesla Stock Right Now?

  • Yes

    Votes: 23 25.0%
  • No

    Votes: 48 52.2%
  • Talking about stocks is showing off

    Votes: 21 22.8%
81 - 100 of 403 Posts

·
Registered
982, F22, E88, etc.
Joined
·
4,727 Posts
I’m just speculating, and I’m even less qualified to give financial advice than Jim Cramer, but the next recession will probably be what tips a large amount of people into switching to electric transport.
I don't know, the problem with recessions is that they tip people out of buying stuff in general. Depending on how we'd come out of it could mean any number of things for EVs, but I have to imagine the short term would, unfortunately, be bad for them.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
20,592 Posts
Fun fact: In the time since the OP posted this, the stock has gone up about 13.02%. The answer was yes. Now, say you bought some at that point... hypothetically speaking. Do you sell it now? Hmm.
You play around with stop losses, IMO to let it ride a bit. Analyst upgrades and increased price targets, plus the ongoing short squeeze still give it a bit more upside. Consider a limit sell past ~$750 or ~$800.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
837 Posts
A short squeeze is happening, but bigger than that, Panasonic announced they reached profitability on their US operations. So they are making money on the gigafactory now. Inevitably there will be a dip, but there is more positive news to come from Tesla and it will come this year (battery advances, S&P500 inclusion, deferred asset recognition).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34,795 Posts
You play around with stop losses, IMO to let it ride a bit. Analyst upgrades and increased price targets, plus the ongoing short squeeze still give it a bit more upside. Consider a limit sell past ~$750 or ~$800.
I hate stop loss orders. Close to two decades ago when Ameritrade was still a new thing and I first started trading stocks, I recall using stop-loss orders a couple times. What I observed was that randomly, some order would go through and clear out every single order on the sell side in a flash, but then the trading price was right back up to where it started. It looked every bit like manipulation designed to get automated orders to sell at below the current price. It happened to be twice and then I stopped using orders and just set alerts instead. So I would randomly get alerted to a price event happening and by the time I looked it up, that was generally not the real price anymore anyway. Honestly: I gave up a few years ago and won't touch individual stocks anymore. I own TSLA via a broader mutual fund for example, but I won't touch the individual stocks anymore. The robotraders are simply impossible to compete with as a sane human being who actually has a full time job already and can't afford to be at war with trading bots all day.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
381 Posts
Bitcoin isn't real, but Tesla is. The trouble is that manufacturing companies are generally valued based on a percentage of their income, and when making physical goods there's only so much income you can make, and growth can only be so fast. Tesla's stock is growing way, way beyond what seems like a reasonable level even for a fast growing manufacturing company. It's truly bizarre. It's not bitcoin because that doesn't exist, but the comparisons of P/E ratios to other companies that rely on selling physical goods to consumers is fair.
I was only referring to the speculation that's happening right now with Tesla, but yes agree with everything you said. :thumbup:
 

·
Registered
SR71 C30 T53a/b/b A4
Joined
·
24,811 Posts
Fun fact: In the time since the OP posted this, the stock has gone up about 13.02%. The answer was yes. Now, say you bought some at that point... hypothetically speaking. Do you sell it now? Hmm.
When the janitor and everybody else talk about buying a stock, it's time to sell. :laugh:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,112 Posts
Buy low, sell high.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

But seriously, folks, the only sure thing, the secret I'm about to divulge, the one tenet I've held for many decades that has made me a happy, healthy man:

:confused:

:confused:

:confused:

:confused:

:confused:

:confused:




Never throw a brick straight up.

:eek:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,724 Posts
At over $138 billion, has Tesla passed the following companies in market cap from its gains TODAY alone...
Costco
Eli Lilly
PayPal
NextEra Energy
Accenture
United Technologies
Philip Morris
Amgen
IBM
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Union Pacific
Honeywell
Broadcom
Lockheed Martin
AbbVie
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,664 Posts
At over $138 billion, has Tesla passed the following companies in market cap from its gains TODAY alone...
Costco
Eli Lilly
PayPal
NextEra Energy
Accenture
United Technologies
Philip Morris
Amgen
IBM
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Union Pacific
Honeywell
Broadcom
Lockheed Martin
AbbVie
I work for a nearly 100 year old Fortune 500 company with earnings similar to Tesla's. Tesla's market cap increased by more than our entire market cap in just today's trading :facepalm:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34,795 Posts
At over $138 billion, has Tesla passed the following companies in market cap from its gains TODAY alone...
Costco
Eli Lilly
PayPal
NextEra Energy
Accenture
United Technologies
Philip Morris
Amgen
IBM
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Union Pacific
Honeywell
Broadcom
Lockheed Martin
AbbVie

It's pretty amusing for sure. Still: The reason for the valuation is future business. Tesla is hoping to grow at least 5x or something from their current 400k cars a year and limited solar and home battery deployments to perhaps 2M cars/year and extensive solar and battery deployments. While I'm still somewhat in amazement that it's real, Tesla managed to book almost $25 Billion in revenue last year. So growing 5x from there puts them at $125B, or just a bit below Costco, from your example which sits just over 6x Tesla's 2019 revenue. The truly optimistic people are the ones who think Tesla could be the next Volkswagen or something with a truly global presence and moving 10 million cars a year in addition to the rest of their admittedly slow moving energy portfolio. If their energy portfolio goes on a tear though in addition to massive growth in global sales volume then I guess it all makes sense. It's still a high risk play I'm only comfortable with due to TSLA being a small part of my overall mutual funds but when I sat down to see if the math even added up, it's actually not ridiculously far from reality if Tesla does grow 5-10x over the next 5-10 years.

Found a closer comparison using the list above, I think.
Tesla: Market cap of $137.5B on Revenue of $24.6B.
Accenture: Market cap of $136.6B on Revenue of $44B.
Abbvie: Market cap of $122B on Revenue of $33B.

Again, Tesla is significantly higher valuation per dollar of revenue, but it's not even double of what Accenture is. The numbers for Abbvie weren't totally different either. Obviously revenue is only tangentially related to profits, but Tesla is still very much in growth mode where they are reinvesting current would-be profits into the company's growth of revenue by expanding the product lines. It's the next 5-10 years where we'll see if the grand Tesla experiment worked or not.
 

·
Registered
SR71 C30 T53a/b/b A4
Joined
·
24,811 Posts
You may or may not mean it this way, but I take that to mean that I'm the janitor. I take no offense. :laugh:
I did not mean to say you were the janitor. But I see your point. :laugh:
 

·
Registered
'17 Golf R
Joined
·
13,101 Posts
Discussion Starter #97
So... if Elon Musk got hit by a bus tomorrow what would happen to the stock?

In other words how much of the company's value is dependent on his genius and innovation (like say Steve Jobs was to Apple) and how much could the company carry on just fine without him?

Apple stock has continued to new heights without Jobs, but there are no more product innovations, just different sized screens.

I wonder what would happen to Tesla stock without Musk.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,664 Posts
So... if Elon Musk got hit by a bus tomorrow what would happen to the stock?

In other words how much of the company's value is dependent on his genius and innovation (like say Steve Jobs was to Apple) and how much could the company carry on just fine without him?

Apple stock has continued to new heights without Jobs, but there are no more product innovations, just different sized screens.

I wonder what would happen to Tesla stock without Musk.
Put it this way, I don't think there's an insurance company that would write key man insurance sufficient to cover the loss. If almost any other CEO had made statements like Musk during the "funding secured" debacle, they would have been sent packing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,724 Posts
So... if Elon Musk got hit by a bus tomorrow what would happen to the stock?

In other words how much of the company's value is dependent on his genius and innovation (like say Steve Jobs was to Apple) and how much could the company carry on just fine without him?

Apple stock has continued to new heights without Jobs, but there are no more product innovations, just different sized screens.

I wonder what would happen to Tesla stock without Musk.
I think Apple's stock price is indicative of everything being fine with Tim Cook. Only real people I've heard say Apple is dead without Jobs have no idea what they're talking about.

And Microsoft's stock price is indicative that nothing has to work correctly if you shove enough contracts down big business and government throats.
 
81 - 100 of 403 Posts
Top