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Agree or disagree? Stellantis says the current car market might crash if EVs don't get cheaper...

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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
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Stellantis N.V. CEO Carlos Tavares, seen here disappointed by the lack of popcorn meme in Uber's thread.

Stellantis' CEO Carlos Tavares accustomed us to complaining about the direction and pace of electrification, highlighting various potential negative consequences.

It seems that Carlos Tavares is not the lone skeptic about BEVs at Stellantis, as this week he was joined by Chief Manufacturing Officer Arnaud Deboeuf.

According to Bloomberg, Arnaud Deboeuf warned that after the EU's deal to phase out new internal combustion engine cars by 2035, the automotive industry is "doomed"... unless electric cars get cheaper.
"If EVs don't get cheaper, the market will collapse," Deboeuf said at the company's Tremery factory in France. "It's a big challenge."
Well, it would be really bad if electric cars do not become cheaper and, because of that, the market shrinks.

But let's be more realistic. Technological progress on one hand and unprecedented increase of the scale of production on the other hand, must translate into lower cost per unit of batteries and electric cars. On top of that is always competition between the manufacturers, which is increasing now after years of neglecting BEVs by many of them.

Even Arnaud Deboeuf noted that Stellantis is aiming to cut BEV production cost by 40% by 2030 (with five more years until the deadline), which was previously hinted at by Carlos Tavares.

Spreading fear is not fun at all, especially in the current circumstances. After all, in the worst case scenario, politics can always tweak the deadline to smooth the transition.
Carlos Tavares pointed out also the issue of limited raw materials availability:
"While Stellantis will comply with the decision, policy makers appear to "not care" whether automakers have enough raw materials to underpin the shift"
Another complain is about the limited battery availability in 2024-2027 time frame, which is expected to favor Asian manufacturers:
"Greater demand for EV batteries between 2024 and 2027 -- a period before more European capacity is due to come online -- will benefit Asian producers and "put at risk" cell output in the West"
Bloomberg
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I think the battery supply chain won't be able to keep up with demand and government regulations. Governments will be forced to backtrack and extend the ICE killing deadlines.
 

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I think the battery supply chain won't be able to keep up with demand and government regulations. Governments will be forced to backtrack and extend the ICE killing deadlines.
THIS. Germany is gonna be the first to build coal-powered ICE. Me thinks.
 

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I think the battery supply chain won't be able to keep up with demand and government regulations. Governments will be forced to backtrack and extend the ICE killing deadlines.
Definitely this.

I expect to be able to buy an ICE version of most cars through most of the remainder of my driving lifetime (35-40 years).
 

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I think the battery supply chain won't be able to keep up with demand and government regulations. Governments will be forced to backtrack and extend the ICE killing deadlines.
Depends on if the new CATL Sodium ion battery production can scale up and how quickly the Salton Sea lithium production can scale up (600,000 toms a year and GM is committed to buying 200,000 tons of it annually for it's Ultium batteries)


 

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Been saying this for a while now, the push to electric cars has been based on a bunch of theories rather than concrete reality.

Not rooting against them, heck I like any new cars, but it's been made pretty clear that a lack of interest from American consumers and of necessary raw materials has so far meant that electrics are not poised to eclipse gasoline on this side of the Atlantic. All the theoretical advancements that would lead to dramatically reduced prices for EVs have yet to show up, and while they may arrive with time, it doesn't look like they will be here by the time California's ICE ban goes into effect. EVs may have missed their window of opportunity, as I meet almost as many people now in Middle America that are skeptical of EVs as I do who are excited to own one.
 

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I think the battery supply chain won't be able to keep up with demand and government regulations. Governments will be forced to backtrack and extend the ICE killing deadlines.
Something like 50+ battery factories are under construction in Europe and the US alone (DoE says 13 in the US alone coming on-line by 2025) with VW saying it is making 6x plants in Europe, and some reports showing 38 plants in Europe overall. This does not account for China/Korea, and then the specialty production lines like Quantamscape and Solid Power.

Batteries are increasingly using less hard-to-source stuff, and now its looks like the base batteries in many cars will be the simpler iron-based batteries that while less energy dense, are more durable, longer lasting, and use mostly common stuff.

Some of the new form factor batteries can be made in a much smaller space, and in Tesla's case, it seems their 4680 cells will likely get made on-site at their car plants in addition to any dedicated factories, so you might see on top of all the dedicated plants under construction, deployment of batt-production at the plants themselves.

Recycling is becoming much better with batteries being incredibly recyclable for all their rare materials, along with short-term use of older batteries in storage solutions. Take a look at Redwood's work.

Resource search is skyrocketing due to demand and price in the same way oil exploration rose to capture high petro values. We drilled in some of the most remote parts of the planet to find dino juice, why do people not think we will do the same for battery bits? Hell, if the Salton Sea projects in the US work, that will provide the US with enough lithium for the transition, much like how fracking turned the US from the biggest importer to the biggest exporter of petro.

We will be fine. These companies will only changed when forced. They care only about their stock prices, it is one of the jobs of good governance to care about zero-profit things like the environment.
 

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a lack of interest from American consumers and of necessary raw materials
This is kind of a contradiction no? If there were no interest how could there be a lack of necessary materials?

There's plenty of interest, hence all the new EV models coming to the US, as well as the long waiting lists and big ADMs.

There is plenty of demand. The bottleneck is on the supply end. I agree that the bottleneck is serious enough that the ICEV bans feel unrealistic, at least today. But given the pace of change from just 3, 5, 10 years ago....... who knows.
 
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Good let it crash. EV's have so much better longevity and so much less required service you can cut out 2/3 of the car industry and the skilled labor assembling and ICE vehicle. The ones who survive that streamlining and stop thinking about shoving a EV powertrain into a bloatmobile and start building EV's completely from the ground up with new designs will be the ones who survive.

The only thing they should be making is PHEV's and BEV's now. a PHEV is the only reason there should be any ICE development or continued use at all.

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