VW Vortex - Volkswagen Forum banner
  • Mwerks and Fourtitude have rejoined VWVortex. For more info, see this thread.

141 - 160 of 338 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,461 Posts
This is actually a problem for EV infrastructure. There just isn't a lot of money to be made in building and maintaining EV infrastructure compared to gas stations. In 5-10 minutes a gas station can sell a single vehicle $50 worth of gas and a few more $ worth of stuff from the store. It might take an EV 30-45 minutes to charge and they spend how much on the charge - maybe $10? Maybe they spend some money at a restaurant but that probably isn't going into the pocket of the EV charging infrastructure owner. So there isn't a big incentive to build up the infrastructure and not a lot of incentive to maintain it.

Tesla at least has incentive to build out their own infrastructure because it helps them sell cars. But they actually have little incentive to maintain their completed infrastructure. Especially if the cars that are charging on it are getting free charging.
Not so fast.

Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
218 Posts
Makes sense as hybrids are the sweet spot and it would be more efficient to produce a bunch of hybrids with smaller batteries, especially if the manufacturers actually produced something that is more normal looking SUVs rather than the super expensive EVs that people can't really afford or look funky.

Can't really sell any EVs is there really aren't any real options or out of reach of most people.

But Hydrogen? :screwy:
 

·
Registered
F87N M2 Competition
Joined
·
1,641 Posts
This is actually a problem for EV infrastructure. There just isn't a lot of money to be made in building and maintaining EV infrastructure compared to gas stations. In 5-10 minutes a gas station can sell a single vehicle $50 worth of gas and a few more $ worth of stuff from the store. It might take an EV 30-45 minutes to charge and they spend how much on the charge - maybe $10?
Right, taken another way: people aren't going to flock to EVs if charging them at "stations" is going to cost roughly the same per amount of energy as petrol (to make it profitable to build out these stations).
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
Not so fast.

Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.
The problem with this post is it takes way less than 5 minutes to pump 12 gallons of gas. In the US pumps are limited to 10GPM and I've definitely seen flow close to that. So now we are talking $1.50 of profit per minute vs $0.47 from the charger. And I'd wager even outside of the sheer # of ICEVs vs EVs just the long nature of charging limits utilization. Can't use a home charger at work or vice versa. Odds are very low someone's gonna sit and charge in a closed grocery store parking lot for a couple of hours etc. So the ROI on installing a pay to charge station is wonky
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,176 Posts
People keep talking about no infrastructure for EVs. And here I thought the Amish were only in small isolated pockets of the country! I don’t know about you guys, but I have electricity at my house. But hey, it’s a good thing Toyota’s pursuing that hydrogen car. That stuff is everywhere!
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
People keep talking about no infrastructure for EVs. And here I thought the Amish were only in small isolated pockets of the country! I don’t know about you guys, but I have electricity at my house. But hey, it’s a good thing Toyota’s pursuing that hydrogen car. That stuff is everywhere!
How about people who street park or live in multi family buildings? Sure EV infrastructure is more decentralized but it's hardly as accessible for everyone as a gas station.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,823 Posts
How you've all let Burnette get away with 6 pages of concern trolling is beyond me :laugh:...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,084 Posts
Ha!

How you've all let Burnette get away with 6 pages of concern trolling is beyond me :laugh:...
The funny part for me is that if you're a fan if a thing it would look like people would be more aware of it. I get it, but you have to be honest about the negatives and not ignore the or say they're not there, because a blind fan is IMO trolling.

That doesn't in any way take away the fact that people enjoy EVs and that for them they make sense. As I've posted, I think that's great. That's the part we have in common, the car people part. :thumbup:

I encourage people to read the Motor Trend link about hydrogen fuel cells, Toyota and Hyundai are high on them. If hydrogen seems like a crazy idea that wint take you see why some people also believe the same with EVs. And that's pretty much what the thread's about, Toyota feels like many, that EVs aren't the way. But IMO hydrogen seems just as crazy. But as you read it, it does have some pluses that EVs don't.

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/hyu...a-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-comparison-review/
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
And to be clear, I think EVs have a place in the automotive landscape and fight against climate change, and I myself could do one if the right one came along. I'm a prime candidate (private parking, very regular driving pattern, could probably talk my old bosses into putting some chargers up at work)

But that's a totally different thing from banning the sale of ICEVs (including hybrids???) whether or not the infrastructure, technology and most importantly market are ready. EVihadists make more cautious folks sound like bad guys for even daring to question the viability of ending ICEV sales in 10 years. It's ridiculous.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
20,602 Posts
How about people who street park or live in multi family buildings? Sure EV infrastructure is more decentralized but it's hardly as accessible for everyone as a gas station.
You need zero of them for EVs to get even 60% market share. They don’t need to work for everyone yet I’m order to work for most people.

L1 and even L2 street parking solutions do exist too, there just hasn’t been much need to implement them yet. L1 overnight would be all that’s really needed too if you’re talking strictly urban use.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
You need zero of them for EVs to get even 60% market share. They don’t need to work for everyone yet I’m order to work for most people.
I'm guessing that assumes every single car in a household with private parking would go EV, which just isn't realistic. Yes the average number of cars per household is around 2 but roommates don't share cars and even in families at least some people will still want 1 ICEV in the fleet.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34,870 Posts
I'm guessing that assumes every single car in a household with private parking would go EV, which just isn't realistic. Yes the average number of cars per household is around 2 but roommates don't share cars and even in families at least some people will still want 1 ICEV in the fleet.
That is not at all what he is saying. He's simply pointing out that right now EVs make up only a few percent of new vehicle sales, and thus something less than 1% of total registered vehicles since it takes 20+ years of new vehicle sales to turnover the majority of registered vehicles. The point is simply that we could sell 10x or maybe even 50x as many EVs before even having to care very much about anything other than home charging.

It will take decades for EVs to increase to 25-50% of total registered vehicles and that's plenty of time for the world to change around us anyway. There's still no guarantee that people who don't live places with easy home charging solutions will even own cars at all 40 years from now. 4 decades might be plenty far enough in the future for various car sharing and self driving technologies and trends to have simply changed the way transportation even works so that this year's rules don't even apply to the year 2060.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
494 Posts
And to be clear, I think EVs have a place in the automotive landscape and fight against climate change, and I myself could do one if the right one came along. I'm a prime candidate (private parking, very regular driving pattern, could probably talk my old bosses into putting some chargers up at work)

But that's a totally different thing from banning the sale of ICEVs (including hybrids???) whether or not the infrastructure, technology and most importantly market are ready. EVihadists make more cautious folks sound like bad guys for even daring to question the viability of ending ICEV sales in 10 years. It's ridiculous.
Did someone in here say they support banning ICEV's in 10 years?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
That is not at all what he is saying. He's simply pointing out that right now EVs make up only a few percent of new vehicle sales, and thus something less than 1% of total registered vehicles since it takes 20+ years of new vehicle sales to turnover the majority of registered vehicles. The point is simply that we could sell 10x or maybe even 50x as many EVs before even having to care very much about anything other than home charging.

It will take decades for EVs to increase to 25-50% of total registered vehicles and that's plenty of time for the world to change around us anyway. There's still no guarantee that people who don't live places with easy home charging solutions will even own cars at all 40 years from now. 4 decades might be plenty far enough in the future for various car sharing and self driving technologies and trends to have simply changed the way transportation even works so that this year's rules don't even apply to the year 2060.
You and him seem to be talking about different things. I thought market share = a percent of the number of cars sold over a given period. I suppose a surge of early adapters could drive EV market share higher but that would assume people who can live with EVs buy new cars more than people who can't, which we just don't have enough info to point to one way or the other.

I do agree though that AVs are a much more potentially disruptive tech than EVs. Sure there is some skepticism around it due to where the tech is today, but if it ever becomes commercially & practically feasible it will upend transportation completely IMO. There's a lot of talk about EVs but I honestly think they won't matter anywhere near as much if AVs become a thing for reasons I've probably laid out ad nauseum.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
Did someone in here say they support banning ICEV's in 10 years?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
Various countries have new ICEV sales bans for 2030 and Galrot has been arguing that those bans make sense.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
46,055 Posts
Not so fast.

Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.
But that $1.80 happens in 5 minutes and during many times there is another car waiting to provide another $1.80 in the next 5 minutes on each pump. Plus if the driver or passengers go inside the convenience store, there is a lot more profit to be made off that 5 minute stop by each motorist.

There is also likely a demand charge that the EV infrastructure is paying on top of the per kWh rates. That has to be factored into the gross profit of the EV infrastructure owner. And as noted in my previous post in almost every case, the EV infrastructure owner doesn't typically own the store or restaurant where the EV infrastructure is placed and thus doesn't make the profit from those sales like a gas station/convenience store typically does.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,973 Posts
There are also going to be equipment costs incurred by the utilities. If people are charging at peak demand times, they will have to beef up generation and transmission. Would take a deep and localized analysis to really know if that would make sense for utilities but the notion that there's available capacity on a weekday afternoon is flat out wrong. Utilities pay big customers NOT to use electricity during those times.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
494 Posts
There are also going to be equipment costs incurred by the utilities. If people are charging at peak demand times, they will have to beef up generation and transmission. Would take a deep and localized analysis to really know if that would make sense for utilities but the notion that there's available capacity on a weekday afternoon is flat out wrong. Utilities pay big customers NOT to use electricity during those times.
I think off peak is just as critical. The majority of EV's are slow charged at night. While 1000 cars fast charging at a time at stations around the city during peak times is a concern, imagine a large city with over a million plus cars slow charging every night.

We're going to have to rethink our grid.




Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

·
Premium Member
Vermonter ~ '20 Si Sedan – '94 Miata – '16 RAV4
Joined
·
35,899 Posts
I think EVs are great. I’d love to own one someday.

My area is rural but between an Ivy League college and a major Medical Center it’s affluent and leans very “green.” Every other car that isn’t a Subaru is a Hybrid. EVs are starting to make a little headway here but the charging infrastructure is nearly non-existent. We are lucky to have a Supercharger in West Lebanon, which Tesla bills as a mid-point change for the Boston-to-Montreal route.

Public charge points outside of the Supercharger are very rare. There are a very few here and there around each town but nothing major (the ones at the park and ride are just standard 110 outlets) and basically none in even the largest shopping center parking lots.

Home charging is the biggie here and that is very limiting as not everyone owns their own home. I just don’t see that changing anytime soon. Maybe a brand new apartment complex puts in a few spots but it’s not like we suddenly have spots to charge up any real percentage of cars in public.

For me, that’s a very limiting factor. I simply wouldn’t own an EV unless I had a home charging port and I guarantee you I’m not the only one who thinks that way. Now *I* can have that, which is why it is an option for me if some other factors evolve in my direction. But I know plenty of people in apartments and condos that cannot have an EV and charge it at home.

I honestly don’t ever expect EV infrastructure to mimic petrol/diesel infrastructure, not in my lifetime at least. And I feel the same way about anything even approaching an ICE ban in the US in my lifetime. Maybe 50 or 60 years from now if things get all Max Max, but the scientists really don’t talk much about “peak oil” anymore. We put billions into drilling and research and trillions into the military to secure it all. A few smaller countries and major metros might try it but large scale ICE car bans are a greenie pipe dream (and I’m very much a greenie).
 
141 - 160 of 338 Posts
Top