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Interesting read. :thumbup:

The man who took over the reigns as the Chief Engineer for the current generation of Toyota’s Prius (and plug-in Prius Prime), before heading up a Toyota-affiliated brake manufacturer last year, Satoshi Ogiso has something to say about all-electric vehicles:

Specifically, that they are now cheaper to build in many cases than hybrids – Toyota’s “bread and butter” go-to green technology.

“The cost of pure electric depends very much on range,” Ogiso told Forbes this week, “Up to 250km (155 mile) range, battery-electric vehicles already can be built for less money than hybrids.”

That said, Mr. Ogiso who is now President of Advics, still feels that the public wants, or even demands more range than that:

“However, the market generally wants more range. With a range above 300km (186 mile) a battery-electric vehicle will remain more expensive at least through 2025.”

Of Note: We should of course mention that this interview took place in Kariya, Japan, so Mr. Ogiso is most likely speaking on range in terms of the Japanese standard, or at best the Euro – NEDC standard; where 250 km/155 miles roughly translates to about 100 miles/160 of real world/EPA rated driving.

As we have seen with the 215+ mile/350km 2017 Tesla Model 3’s $35,000 base pricing, backing up Mr. Ogiso’s point, long range EVs are still not yet price equivalent to hybrids…and might still take 10 years to get there:eek:

One of Toyota’s top people in the field of electrification and hybridization (and even had a hand in the Toyota Mirai fuel cell vehicle) thinks that the ultimate automotive end game still rests with pure all-electric cars, but that the tipping point may yet be a decade or two out.

“For the next 10 or 20 years, and on a global level, our estimation is that more than 50% or 60% of the cars should be hybrid or fuel cell, with 30% of the volume going to battery electric.”
http://insideevs.com/toyotas-ogiso-evs-250km-155-mile-range-battery-electric-vehicles-already-can-built-less-money-hybrids/



:thumbup:
 

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Just for the record, they're talking about those BS range figures they use in Europe and Japan. For example, the 30kwh Leaf is rated at 250km of range (155 miles) under NEDC, but only 107 miles US, which is a far more realistic figure in places that get more than 68 degrees and partly cloudy every day with speeds no higher than 35mph. So when it says 155 miles, that really means 107 miles, like the new Leaf.
 

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Just for the record, they're talking about those BS range figures they use in Europe and Japan. For example, the 30kwh Leaf is rated at 250km of range (155 miles) under NEDC, but only 107 miles US, which is a far more realistic figure in places that get more than 68 degrees and partly cloudy every day with speeds no higher than 35mph. So when it says 155 miles, that really means 107 miles, like the new Leaf.
We need better battery technology, stat.
 

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We need better battery technology, stat.
This is exactly why I don't think BEV is necessarily the future, and why I don't think anyone should bet the farm on it.

Battery technology does not really improve over time. If you split open a battery in a Tesla, it will look remarkably similar to the very first Voltaic Pile from over 200 years ago. The only time battery energy density sees major gains is when a different chemistry is used. If you look at any one particular chemistry, the rate of energy density improvement is very small over time. Most chemistry changes have been stumbled upon accidentally. So saying BEV is the future is a Vegas level gamble.
 

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Satoshi Ogiso said:
The cost of pure electric depends very much on range. Up to 250km (155 mile) range, battery-electric vehicles already can be built for less money than hybrids. However, the market generally wants more range. With a range above 300km (186 mile) a battery-electric vehicle will remain more expensive at least through 2025.
Editorial Content said:
As we have seen with the 215+ mile/350km 2017 Tesla Model 3’s $35,000 base pricing, backing up Mr. Ogiso’s point, long range EVs are still not yet price equivalent to hybrids…and might still take 10 years to get there.
These numbers are all worse than this article would lead you to believe when you do the mileage math that AZGolf pointed out.

Godspeed Elon. You have some real challenges ahead of you.
 

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The only time battery energy density sees major gains is when a different chemistry is used.
This is demonstrably false. Advancements may be slow and charts to the year 2040 are needed (as I listed above) but there's absolutely been improvements even within a single form factor and chemistry type.

 

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You have to look at energy density compared to power density as well. As you increase the energy density of a battery, the available power changes, and it is limited in what you can do in a production battery that doesn't have packaging and heat problems. In reality, all chemistries are limited at the upper and lower ends. What you can demonstrate in a lab with Li-Ion doesn't magically translate to a production vehicle.



So as I stated earlier, larger improvements have only been made when switching to new chemistries. While we have spent billions and billions of dollars on improving Li-Ion cells and other as-yet-proved technologies, we are still so incredibly far off from where we need to be. In comparison with hydrocarbon fuels:



If you look only at batteries, it seems worthwhile. But consider that the tiny blip in the corner is 200 years of battery research, we have a long way to go.

Batteries are a part of the long term solution, but they simply can't be the entirety of the solution. It doesn't make sense.
 
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